But might he re-emerge at the head of yet another coalition?
ROME
IN THE COLOURFUL jargon of Italian politics, the latest upheaval, which reached a turning-point on January 26th with the resignation of the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, is a crisi al buio, or “crisis in the dark”.
Sometimes at such moments matters have been settled in advance: the head of the government steps down, but in the knowledge that he—there has yet to be a “she”—can count on majority support in parliament for a reshuffled cabinet.
No such certainty exists this time. Mr Conte might, or might not, now be asked to try to form a third government in three years. It all depends on Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, and what he learns from party representatives in the formal consultations that he will launch on January 27th. Even if a solution can be found soon—and that does not look easy—the outcome could be a government that is shaky or explosive.
That gives the crisis a Europe-wide significance. Under the EU’s plans for recovery from the pandemic, Italy will get the biggest allocation, of more than €200bn ($240bn) in grants and loans, to be raised mostly by borrowing underwritten jointly by member states. Already, doubts have been expressed about Italy’s ability to put its windfall to good use. Those doubts will only grow if the country now tips into a period of continuing political uncertainty.
Mr Conte’s coalition, which includes the ideologically eclectic Five Star Movement (M5S), the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the more left-wing, but smaller, Free and Equal movement, had been in trouble since January 13th. That was when the ministers from a fourth coalition party, Italia Viva, left the cabinet, mainly in protest at the plans for spending Italy’s recovery funds.
Though polling a mere 3%, Italia Viva, led by a former prime minister, Matteo Renzi, still has enough senators to deprive the government of a majority in the upper house. And they were expected to defeat it in a vote on a key reform, to the justice system, due this week. Mr Conte decided to jump before he was pushed.
That should boost his chances of being asked by Mr Mattarella to try either to woo back Italia Viva or to replace it with independent or opposition lawmakers. A first snag is that Mr Conte has let it be known he wants nothing more to do with Mr Renzi. And the same is true of some in the PD and M5S. That could, of course, be a bluff. But a second snag is that Mr Renzi’s many criticisms of the government’s performance suggest he may not be content with a reshuffle that gives his tiny party more clout. He may genuinely want Mr Conte’s head.
If so, Mr Conte’s only resort would be to construct a new majority. Silvio Berlusconi, whose Forza Italia party occupies 54 of the seats in the 321-seat Senate, has signalled his backing for a broader coalition. But then another snag arises: the Five Stars refuse to ally with a party they view as incorrigibly sleazy. Mr Conte had hoped to lure over a posse of Christian Democrats. But—yet another snag—their party secretary was put under formal investigation earlier this month, suspected of helping the Calabrian mafia.
So another way out of the crisis could well be a new prime minister, either at the head of the previous coalition, or a new one. But he or she would need to be acceptable to all concerned. If no suitable candidate can be found that would mean that, with all other alternatives exhausted, Mr Mattarella would have no choice but to order a snap election, in the midst of a pandemic. The best guarantee against that is a reform, approved by a referendum last year, that cut the number of seats in parliament by around a third. The current lawmakers’ instinct for self-preservation will surely mean that everything possible will be done to avoid an election.
By The Economist
